Influenza Surveillance and Risk Assessment

Understanding how influenza strains emerge, knowing where they are emerging and in which animal populations, and predicting how those strains may or may not affect humans are central to controlling and preparing for both seasonal influenza epidemics and potential influenza pandemics.

Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance

In 2007, NIAID created the Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance (CEIRS) to support U.S. and international researchers in the study of factors that control the emergence and transmission of flu viruses among animals and the immunological determinants of whether a flu virus causes only mild illness or results in severe illness or death in humans. The goal of the program is to provide federal and state governments with the public health tools and strategies necessary to control and lessen the impact of epidemic, seasonal influenza and potential influenza pandemics.

The CEIRS are currently based at:

  • Emory University, Atlanta
  • Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York City
  • Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore
  • St. Jude’s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee
  • University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, New York

The CEIRS program continually monitors cases of animal and human influenza worldwide to rapidly detect and characterize viruses that may have pandemic potential, such as the avian influenza strains H5N1, H7N9 and H3N2v. For example, CEIRS-funded researchers monitor the evolution of H5N1 virus in southeast Asia, examine the prevalence of H5N1 virus exposure among poultry workers in Egypt, and study the incidence of influenza A virus among pigs at agricultural fairs in the United States.

Understanding Flu Infection through Challenge studies

Understanding how the human immune system responds to flu virus gives a better understanding of the basic biology of human flu infection and can yield important information for flu vaccine development. To learn more about this process, NIAID scientists at the NIH Clinical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, have conducted challenge studies, or clinical trials in which healthy volunteers are willingly exposed to naturally occurring flu virus. Information gained through these types of studies include how much time elapses between a known exposure to flu virus and the start of viral shedding (a sign of contagiousness), the onset and duration of flu symptoms, and the development of an immune response. These types of studies provide a scientific basis for more rapid, cost-effective clinical trials to evaluate new flu drugs or to determine the efficacy of candidate vaccines for both seasonal and pandemic flu. Recent data from these trials identified new, unexpected factors that may influence flu vaccine effectiveness.

Other NIAID-supported studies are examining how pre-existing immunity impacts the body’s response to flu infection or vaccination. Some studies focus on how this immunity develops and changes inchildren and young adults as compared to older adults. Scientists are also examining the impact of prior and/or repeated exposure to flu viruses on the immune response to vaccination or infection.

Scientific Advances

Yellow/red particles of avian influenza A H5N1 virus particles.

Features of H5N1 Influenza Viruses in Dairy Cows May Facilitate Infection, Transmission in Mammals

July 8, 2024

A series of experiments with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) viruses circulating in infected U.S. dairy cattle found that viruses derived from lactating dairy cattle induced severe disease in mice and ferrets when administered via intranasal inoculation. The virus from the H5N1-infected cows bound to both avian (bird) and human-type cellular receptors, but, importantly, did not transmit efficiently among ferrets exposed via respiratory droplets.

The image shows two bottles of raw milk in glass bottles in a wooden bottle holder placed on the ground.

Infectious H5N1 Influenza Virus in Raw Milk Rapidly Declines with Heat Treatment

June 14, 2024

The amount of infectious H5N1 influenza viruses in raw milk rapidly declined with heat treatment in laboratory research conducted by scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health. However, small, detectable amounts of infectious virus remained in raw milk samples with high virus levels when treated at 72 degrees Celsius (161.6 degrees Fahrenheit) for 15 seconds—one of the standard pasteurization methods used by the dairy industry.

Image of Colorized transmission electron micrograph of avian influenza A H5N1 virus particles.

High H5N1 Influenza Levels Found in Mice Given Raw Milk from Infected Dairy Cows

May 24, 2024

Mice administered raw milk samples from dairy cows infected with H5N1 influenza experienced high virus levels in their respiratory organs and lower virus levels in other vital organs, according to findings published in the New England Journal of Medicine. The results suggest that consumption of raw milk by animals poses a risk for H5N1 infection and raises questions about its potential risk in humans. 

three people dressed in protective gear collect sample from deceased seabird

HPAI Influenza Devastating Birds, Marine Mammals in Peru--Study Identifies Concerning Viral Mutations

September 11, 2023

NIAID-funded researchers working in Peru have signaled concern about the deaths of birds and marine mammals from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that has been spreading globally.

Flu virus particles on a cell

NIAID Funds New Influenza Research Network

April 14, 2021

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, has established a network of research sites to study the natural history, transmission and pathogenesis of influenza and provide an international research infrastructure to address influenza outbreaks.

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